The Super Bowl math on fourth downs | News

 

| by Glxbal Labz |

On Sunday, the Philadelphia Eagles will once again face the Kansas City Chiefs in the Super Bowl. In 2023, the Chiefs eked out a one-possession victory over the Eagles, winning 38-35. We can probably expect a similarly close game this time, which means that one crucial factor in the game will be fourth down decisionmaking. 

When it comes to fourth downs, NFL coaches are more conservative than the math. In situations where a conversion is likely, coaches usually opt to punt, though they have been getting more aggressive in the past few years. 

A new study led by mathematician Nate Sandholtz illustrates how this could play out in the Super Bowl. His team used statistical analysis of fourth down calls by 85 NFL coaches over the course of the 2014-2022 seasons to determine the relative fourth down risk tolerance of each coach. 

The study found that Nick Sirriani is more likely to go for it on fourth down than Reid: he has the sixth highest risk tolerance of all the coaches analyzed, Reid, by contrast, is about average. But we’ll have to wait until Sunday to find out if their history plays out the same way during the biggest game of the year.